How Will the 2024 Presidential Election Affect Real Estate?

Whether we’re ready for it or not, the 2024 Presidential election is right around the corner. This year has already brought enough uncertainty, and an election could make your clients question their buying and selling plans again.

On top of it all, real estate has been a hot topic in this year’s election. Even if your clients aren’t asking these questions, they’re probably thinking about them. So, how might the history of past presidential elections combined with today’s market factors play out in real estate this time around?

Home Sales Might Slow Down – But Not for Long

Historically, home sales typically slow down in the fall following the spring and summer rush. Will the election impact this even more? Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, anticipates:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”

People get a bit nervous about making big decisions during election time. But don’t worry – this slowdown is just temporary. History shows that home sales bounce back in December and keep going up the next year. Data from HUD and NAR indicates that after nine of the last eleven presidential elections, home sales increased the following year.

Home Prices Don’t Fall – They Usually Rise

What about home prices? Do they take a hit during election years? Not really. Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser and housing analyst, says:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient – they usually go up year-over-year, no matter what. NAR’s latest data shows that after seven of the last eight presidential elections, home prices went up the following year.

Mortgage Rates Should Continue to Trend Down

The economy is tightly connected to politics, and real estate is tightly connected to the economy. You know what’s also very connected to the economy and politics? Mortgage rates. Looking back at the last eleven presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates dropped from July to November in eight of them.

Bottom Line

While the country’s economic state continues to be challenging, the Presidential election may cause consumers to watch and wait in the months to come. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

This is definitely not your typical Presidential election, and every real estate professional should keep a close eye on what’s happening. Especially since the housing market is such a hot button topic.