Mortgage Rates Climb on Oil Surge & CPI Ahead
March 11, 2026
Mortgage markets opened lower this Wednesday, March 11, 2026, yielding back some recent gains as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel. Renewed inflation jitters are driving upward pressure on rates ahead of tomorrow's critical CPI report. This volatile week also features key Treasury auctions and geopolitical tensions, keeping buyers on edge.
Bonds faded yesterday's rally today, with mortgage-backed securities declining further by 5 basis points after dropping 20 basis points prior. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around recent levels amid selling pressure from oil spikes and de-escalation signals on Iran that failed to sustain momentum. Existing Home Sales data beat expectations yesterday but had minimal market impact as focus shifted to inflation risks. Markets anticipate high volatility this week, with more upside pressure on rates than downside.
Housing data showed resilience with Existing Home Sales surpassing forecasts, signaling steady demand despite affordability challenges from elevated rates. However, the broader market remains cautious as inflation worries and energy costs weigh on buyer sentiment. Affordability trends continue to favor cautious positioning, with short-term float/lock guidance recommending locks for loans under 30 days and floats only for 30+ days.
For homebuyers, this environment suggests acting swiftly to lock in rates amid likely upward trends, especially with CPI data due tomorrow. Sellers may benefit from strong sales figures but should prepare for slower pace if rates climb further. Overall, the jam-packed economic calendar points to heightened uncertainty, making personalized rate strategies essential for navigating this week's risks.
Mortgage rates face upward pressure from oil surges and inflation data this week, overshadowing positive housing signals. Staying informed on bond movements and lock advice positions borrowers for success. Proactive guidance remains key in this volatile landscape.